Biden's shaky debate has overseas allies bracing for Trump return
World
Biden's shaky debate has overseas allies bracing for Trump return
TOKYO/SEOUL (Reuters) - While the first US presidential debate of the 2024 race dwelled little on foreign policy, a shaky performance by President Joe Biden will have America's allies steeling for the return of Donald Trump, analysts say.
Biden's supporters had hoped the debate would erase worries that he was too old to serve, but several lawmakers, analysts and investors said the event had given Trump a boost.
"Mr. Trump didn't win but Mr. Biden might have imploded," said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat and now research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies, a think tank.
"Unlike eight years ago, we are much more prepared, as are other European and Asian allies. Still, Mr Trump is unpredictable."
For Japan and South Korea, among the closest US allies in Asia, relations with Trump's administration were at times strained by his demands for more payments towards military assistance as well as trade tensions.
"The biggest question for Japan would be whether Trump will truly value and maintain the security alliance," said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Japan's Takushoku University in Tokyo.
Peter Lee, research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, said the debate had put into "much more stark relief" the possibility of a second Trump administration. Lee said he expected Trump to be "very tough" second time around in pressuring allies to up their defence spending.
Trump also started a tariff war with China, the world's second largest economy, and has floated tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods if he wins the Nov. 5 election.
Overseas firms dependent on U.S. markets, such as automakers, would also be wary of the heightened possibility of Trump's return given the "myriad" of tariff-related policies he imposed during his previous term, said Lee Jae-il, analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities.
"Trump, like a trade war maniac, might not just target China but impose tariffs against other countries as well under the concept of American exceptionalism," added Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities in Seoul.
WAR IN UKRAINE
In Europe, Trump's criticisms of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and demands that other members pay more dominated his previous administration. His scepticism towards NATO is causing further anxiety this time, as Russian's war in Ukraine has brought conflict to the bloc's doorstep.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz previously cheered on Biden's prospects for re-election. But on Friday a senior defence figure in the ruling coalition lamented Biden's performance and urged Democrats to find another candidate.
